This is the final table of the 2020/2021 NZ Football Championship:
What do we take from this table?
Despite the fact that this has been a short season to begin with and that most of the teams had a really inconsistent form curve AND the fact that I observed the teams not very often at all and only at the beginning of the season, a reasonably strong relationship between the teams’ table standings and how many shots on target (HQSOT) they concede has emerged, eventually.
If you divide the High Quality shots you take by the shots you concede you get the HQSOT-Q number. You want this to be ABOVE 1.0 because that means you take more shots than you concede.
HQSOT conceded and HQSOT-Q are pretty much even in respect to their relationship with the teams’ respective standings and only Auckland City together with Hamilton and Eastern Suburbs muddying the waters a bit.
The bottom half teams are all exactly where they “should be” according to their observed HQSOT-Q/ HQSOT- conceded. The top half – as just pointed out – is a bit patchy. This points to me having caught the three teams mentioned at matches in which they were not as strong as they were in the rest of the season (Auckland) or in which they were stronger than the rest of their season (Hamilton, Eastern Suburbs).
Most of my tentative musings from the 1st January have proven to be on the money. Here is what I wrote about 10 weeks ago:
“I have a nagging feeling that they [Hamilton] have punched above their actual weight a bit?
Overall, the top four will possibly be what we have right now [ YES] (maybe different distribution?) [YES] and I cannot see Hawkes Bay coming out of their hole [ YES]. For the Phoenix much will depend on whether their keeper can go on working medium sized miracles – otherwise I would expect them to join Hawkes Bay in a race to the bottom.” [ YES]
That’s four from four based on the skimpiest margin of data.
I am happy with that and that is also a good place to call it quits!
The blog will remain “open” as there seems to be ongoing international interest in the work I have done since 2015 and in the concepts and findings that I have shared.
For me – this blog has run its course, though, as other areas of life and interests have taken over in recent years.
It has been a privilege doing this.
I am not going to lie: at times it was also a heavy burden on me – and by association – my son when becoming the target for severe bullying because the facts and the objective data did not suit the self-interest of various people in and around the local game. The dark and putrid side of the beautiful game was on full display to us during those times. But that is all in the past now.
Thank you for taking an interest over the past 6 years and if some terms and concepts that I have developed and suggested in these blogs since 2015 find their way into the coverage of football leagues and matches I would be honoured if a mention to the origin of those terms and concepts would be made.
That’s all.
Better football everyone.
Dieter Dvorak
footballnumbersblog 